Mispriced
Odds vs. headlines
Prediction markets and the press don't always agree. These are the live stories where the money runs ahead of the reporting, or the coverage disputes what traders believe — the gap is the signal.
Every story below pairs the crowd's price on Polymarket or Kalshi with a cross-source read of the coverage. "Crowd ahead of press" means traders are more confident than the reporting; "coverage disputes this" means outlets are pushing back on the favored outcome. It updates as the odds and the headlines move.
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Flávio Bolsonaro Faces Corruption Probe Ahead of Brazil Election
Flávio Bolsonaro, a prominent candidate in Brazil's upcoming presidential election, is facing a corruption probe that has emerged just weeks before the October 4, 2026, vote. This…
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Big Sky Ski Resort Eyes Early Winter Opening
Big Sky Ski Resort in Montana is drawing attention as the 2026-27 winter season approaches, with speculation centering on whether it will commence operations before November 29,…
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Talarico Gains Ground in Texas Senate Race
The race for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas is intensifying, with Democratic challenger James Talarico receiving a significant endorsement just two months before the midterm…
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Yashar Party Gains Ahead of Israeli Elections
Legislative elections are anticipated in Israel on October 27, 2026, where Yair Eisenkot's Yashar party is reportedly making strides against Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud. Recent…
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Bass Faces Mounting Pressure in Los Angeles Mayoral Race
Karen Bass, the incumbent mayor of Los Angeles, is experiencing increased pressure in her re-election bid, with recent reports indicating a perceived shift in campaign energy…
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Iran Leadership Under Scrutiny Amid US Regime Change Talk
Questions surrounding the leadership of Iran, particularly the de facto status of Mojtaba Khamenei, have intensified as the United States' strategy toward Tehran appears to shift…
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Trump Rebrands AI as "Super Intelligence"
Donald Trump has declared his intention to rename artificial intelligence to "Super Intelligence" in official U.S. government documents. Speaking at the United Nations, Trump…
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Digger's Rotten Tomatoes Score Awaits Critical Reception
Anticipation is building for the critical reception of "Digger," as the film's Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score is expected to be above 45. The film, whose genre and cast are not…
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Ocasio-Cortez's 2028 Presidential Ambitions Under Scrutiny
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's potential bid for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination continues to generate discussion, though her path appears challenging.…
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US Confirmation of Alien Existence by Year-End
The possibility of a US federal agency, the President, a Cabinet member, or a Joint Chiefs of Staff member confirming the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology by…
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Search Intensifies for New Interstellar Visitors
The scientific community is intensifying its efforts to identify and confirm new interstellar visitors before the close of 2026, building on recent insights from comet 3I/ATLAS.…
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Anthropic's Claude Faces AI Competition and Internal Strife
Anthropic's Claude AI is navigating a turbulent period, marked by a significant new competitor and internal dissent, as the race for the top language model intensifies towards the…
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Bitcoin's 2026 Close: Can It Reach $75,000?
The cryptocurrency market is closely watching Bitcoin's potential price range for the end of 2026, with significant attention on whether it can settle between $75,000.00 and…