Mispriced
Odds vs. headlines
Prediction markets and the press don't always agree. These are the live stories where the money runs ahead of the reporting, or the coverage disputes what traders believe — the gap is the signal.
Every story below pairs the crowd's price on Polymarket or Kalshi with a cross-source read of the coverage. "Crowd ahead of press" means traders are more confident than the reporting; "coverage disputes this" means outlets are pushing back on the favored outcome. It updates as the odds and the headlines move.
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Iran's Hormuz fees plan sparks fresh tensions with US and Gulf allies
The Iranian government is reportedly considering a plan to charge commercial vessels for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a move that has sparked fresh tensions with the US…
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Grab to Report Earnings Amid Rising Competition in Southeast Asia
Grab Holdings Limited, the Southeast Asian ride-hailing and food delivery giant, is preparing to report its earnings, with investors closely watching for signs of growth in the…
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US-Iran Conflict Escalates as US Carries Out Strikes on Iran
The US military has carried out strikes on Iran, escalating the conflict as both sides threaten civilian infrastructure. The situation remains volatile, with the US and Iran…
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US-Iran diplomacy enters critical window as September deadline looms
of progress, while Fox News reported he cautioned the five-month conflict could drag on toward November's midterms. Whether senior representatives convene formally by the…
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BLS July CPI report nears as US inflation stays stubbornly above Fed target
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release its July Consumer Price Index report on August 12, offering the latest read on whether annual U.S. inflation is continuing its…
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Bitcoin tests $67,500 ceiling as mining thins and Treasury yields climb
Bitcoin enters August 2026 under mounting pressure, with mining difficulty falling as weak economics force capacity reductions and forward markets signaling little relief through…
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RFK Jr. faces Hatch Act probe as 2028 GOP nomination talk persists
A Senate Democrat has requested an investigation into whether Robert F. Kennedy Jr. violated the Hatch Act, according to The Hill, adding a new legal dimension to questions about…
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Trump's public remarks tracked for signature phrase before September deadline
President Donald Trump has maintained a heavy public-speaking schedule in recent weeks, defending his tariff policies at a General Motors visit in Michigan, preparing for a…
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Bitcoin tests $60,000 floor as August selling pressure builds
Bitcoin enters August with sentiment under pressure from multiple fronts: a reported $90 million loss from cold storage described as "sickening" by CoinTelegraph, stalling crypto…
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UK Plunges into Extreme Weather, Climate Whiplash Takes Hold
The UK is in the midst of a chaotic weather pattern, with extreme heat and cold events occurring in rapid succession, a phenomenon known as climate whiplash. This rapid shift in…
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Oscars 2027 best actress race takes shape as film calendar turns
The 99th Academy Awards will not name a Best Actress winner until March 14, 2027, but the long-lead race is already taking shape as the film industry turns from last season's…
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Bitcoin Plunges Amid Cold Storage Loss, Sentiment Shifts
Bitcoin's price continues to slide as a recent loss of $90 million from a cold storage facility weighs heavily on sentiment. The market is pricing in a continued decline, with the…
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Anthropic's Claude faces a DeepSeek challenge as year-end AI crown looms
Anthropic is pushing its newest model, Claude, toward a year-end showdown for the title of top-ranked large language model on Dec. 31, 2026, and a new contender is complicating…
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Oil rallies on US-Iran escalation as record crack spreads signal tight refining
Crude oil futures are surging as direct US-Iran military exchanges escalate and refining margins hit record highs in 2026, tightening an already strained supply picture. Forbes…
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Anthropic eyes top AI model spot as Chinese labs close gap
Anthropic is positioning itself to hold the top-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the final 2026 ranking is checked on December 31, a benchmark that has…
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NASA's Alien Search: U.S. Officials Weigh in on Extraterrestrial Life
NASA's latest findings have sparked renewed interest in the search for alien life, with U.S. officials weighing in on the possibility of extraterrestrial existence. The crowd is…