Accuracy
We keep score on ourselves
57%
Across 745 settled prediction markets, the crowd's favored side won 425 times — 57%. We log every resolution, hits and misses alike; nothing is retracted.
Most news never grades itself. Crowdtells reads prediction markets as a signal of what matters — so we can do the honest thing and check, every time a market settles, whether the crowd's favored side actually won. This page is that ledger. It updates automatically as markets resolve.
Calibration: when we said it, did it happen?
Grouped by the odds we first published (635 graded). A well-calibrated read means outcomes we put around 70% on happen about 70% of the time.
| We first read | It happened | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 57% | 112 |
| 60–70% | 75% | 61 |
| 70–80% | 83% | 46 |
| 80–90% | 65% | 46 |
| 90–100% | 45% | 317 |
By category
Hit rate isn't uniform — sports resolve near-certain, politics and economics are harder. The honest breakdown:
