https://crowdtells.com/ A living record of what the crowd believes — news, told through the crowd. The crowd tells it first. en Mon, 03 Aug 2026 23:06:58 GMT https://crowdtells.com/s/kalshi-KXNEXTAG-29 https://crowdtells.com/s/kalshi-KXNEXTAG-29 Politics Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:36:24 GMT President Trump is considering pulling the nomination of Todd Blanche for Attorney General as Republican senators hold out for concessions. This comes after Blanche rescinded Trump's 'anti-weaponization fund' ahead of his nomination hearing, reigniting a dispute over the settlement. Traders put Blanche at 95%, even though the reporting suggests Trump's stance on the fund may be a sticking point in the confirmation process. https://crowdtells.com/s/34889 https://crowdtells.com/s/34889 Geopolitics Sat, 01 Aug 2026 10:07:07 GMT Hamas has announced it will disarm in the Gaza Strip if Israel withdraws from the area and the US honors a ceasefire agreement signed in October 2025. The move is seen as a significant step towards peace in the region. Traders put 'Yes' at 55%, even though the reporting emphasizes the obstacles still ahead, including the complexities of implementing a disarmament deal in the face of ongoing violence. https://crowdtells.com/s/kalshi-KXSENATEMID-26 https://crowdtells.com/s/kalshi-KXSENATEMID-26 Politics Fri, 31 Jul 2026 10:47:48 GMT Michigan's Senate primary season is heating up, with Abdul El-Sayed leading in the latest polls. Despite his strong showing, some analysts say the nomination is far from certain, and the Democratic Party's chances in the general election depend on the outcome. Traders put Abdul El-Sayed at 98%, even though the reporting suggests a competitive contest. Over the past 24 hours, his odds have moved +1.1 pts in his favor. https://crowdtells.com/s/81557 https://crowdtells.com/s/81557 Politics Wed, 22 Jul 2026 19:40:43 GMT As the Israeli election nears, Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party is gaining momentum, according to a new Channel 12 Knesset poll. The poll puts Eizenkot ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu, the current prime minister, in a potential showdown. While traders put Eizenkot at roughly a coin-flip (50%), the reporting suggests a more complex picture. Eizenkot's party has been gaining ground, but Netanyahu still maintains a strong base of support. The election will be held on October 27, with the outcome hanging in the balance. With the stakes high, the question remains: can Eizenkot's Yashar party overcome Netanyahu's entrenched support and emerge victorious? https://crowdtells.com/s/634801 https://crowdtells.com/s/634801 Geopolitics Fri, 24 Jul 2026 03:35:58 GMT The Iranian government is reportedly considering a plan to charge commercial vessels for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a move that has sparked fresh tensions with the US and Gulf allies. The plan, which has been met with opposition from the US, would see Iran charging fees to commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. While the market's odds currently favor a December 31 deadline for the plan to be implemented, the reporting suggests that the US is considering a similar fee, which could potentially escalate the situation. The move has been met with opposition from the US, with experts warning that it could open up a 'very dangerous Pandora's Box'. https://crowdtells.com/s/620025 https://crowdtells.com/s/620025 Geopolitics Fri, 24 Jul 2026 00:05:35 GMT The United States and Iran are locked in a high-stakes diplomatic effort to reach a final nuclear deal, with the deadline for a written agreement set for December 31, 2026. The deal, which was announced in June, includes a 60-day extendable period for both countries to negotiate towards a https://crowdtells.com/s/51456 https://crowdtells.com/s/51456 Markets Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:36:24 GMT The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at the conclusion of its July 29, 2026 meeting, the first major test of whether Chairman Kevin Warsh is abandoning the central bank's long-standing practice of telegraphing policy moves well in advance. The decision was not unanimous: three FOMC members dissented in favor of raising rates, an unusually large split that CNBC described as a "divided Fed" and that the New York Times and PBS each flagged as a signal of mounting internal pressure to tighten further rather than hold. Against that backdrop, the proposition that the Fed delivers zero 25-basis-point cuts in all of 2026 — not a single reduction at any scheduled meeting or in an emergency action — has drawn 89% on prediction markets, a level that aligns with, and arguably runs slightly ahead of, a coverage consensus increasingly focused on the possibility of hikes rather than cuts. The odds have drifted +3.4 pts over the past week and were 0 pts in the last 24 hours, suggesting the post-meeting narrative has stabilized rather than shifted sharply. Related contract facets pricing a 2026 hike by the October meeting lean toward yes, reinforcing the cross-board drift away from any easing scenario. https://crowdtells.com/s/kalshi-KXEARNINGSMENTIONGRAB-26AUG03 https://crowdtells.com/s/kalshi-KXEARNINGSMENTIONGRAB-26AUG03 Culture Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:36:24 GMT Grab Holdings Limited, the Southeast Asian ride-hailing and food delivery giant, is preparing to report its earnings, with investors closely watching for signs of growth in the region. According to the market, Grab is an overwhelming favorite to mention 'Superbank' during its earnings call, with traders putting the odds at 94%, even though the reporting suggests a mixed bag of results. The market has seen a notable move in the past 24 hours, with the odds shifting +4 pts. The total money traded on this market remains low, with only $66.5K traded so far. https://crowdtells.com/s/kalshi-KXGEMINI-GEMI35P https://crowdtells.com/s/kalshi-KXGEMINI-GEMI35P Science and Technology Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:36:24 GMT Google's highly anticipated release of Gemini 3.5 Pro, a key update to its AI-powered language processing system, is expected to hit the market soon, with the company's latest statements suggesting a possible August release. According to recent reports, Google has been working on the 3.5 Pro model, which promises significant improvements over its predecessor. The move is seen as a major development in the tech industry, with many experts expecting the new model to revolutionize the field of natural language processing. Despite the excitement, the exact release date remains unclear, with some speculating that it may be pushed back to September. Traders are pricing in a strong likelihood of the release happening before August 16, with the current odds at 23%, a significant increase from yesterday's +9 pts. https://crowdtells.com/s/79831 https://crowdtells.com/s/79831 Culture Sun, 02 Aug 2026 10:04:58 GMT Spider-Man: Brand New Day has made a stunning start to its box office run, setting a new record for preview earnings with $72 million in the bank. According to reports, the film's opening day was particularly strong, with some outlets suggesting it could be on track for a record-breaking $875 million opening at the global box office. This is a significant development, given the film's high production values and the competition it faces from other major releases this year. Traders put Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 91%, even though the reporting suggests it may not be the only contender for the top spot. https://crowdtells.com/s/634802 https://crowdtells.com/s/634802 Geopolitics Sun, 02 Aug 2026 10:04:58 GMT Iran's military activities in the region have escalated tensions with the US, with the latter warning of potential airspace closure by December 31. The situation is causing concerns among commercial airlines and travelers. Traders put the likelihood of airspace closure by December 31 at roughly a coin-flip, with a notable move in the past 24 hours. The market has seen actively traded volumes, with a significant amount of money traded in the past 24 hours. https://crowdtells.com/s/707496 https://crowdtells.com/s/707496 Geopolitics Sun, 02 Aug 2026 10:04:58 GMT The US military has carried out strikes on Iran, escalating the conflict as both sides threaten civilian infrastructure. The situation remains volatile, with the US and Iran engaging in a war of words. Traders put the August 31 ceasefire at 76%, even though the reporting suggests that the conflict is far from resolved. The recent strikes have raised concerns about the safety of civilians and the potential for further escalation. https://crowdtells.com/s/680749 https://crowdtells.com/s/680749 Politics Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:36:24 GMT A by-election for the UK parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following Nigel Farage's announced resignation. The contest is seen as a test of Farage's popularity and the strength of his Brexit Party. Count Binface, a satirical candidate, has gained attention for his unconventional campaign. Traders put Binface at 46%, even though the reporting suggests he may struggle to gain significant support. https://crowdtells.com/s/90400 https://crowdtells.com/s/90400 Politics Wed, 29 Jul 2026 10:47:02 GMT Former Rep. Cori Bush and current Rep. Wesley Bell meet in Missouri's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, a rematch that the AP calls a key test for Democrats in Missouri. Bell, who unseated Bush in the 2024 primary, has drawn the backing of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, reinforcing his standing with the party establishment. Bush, a former Squad member and progressive standard-bearer, is fighting to reclaim the St. Louis-area seat she lost two years ago. The contest has drawn national attention as a proxy battle between the Democratic mainstream and its left flank. Traders put Wesley Bell at 66%, a position broadly consistent with the favorable coverage he has drawn from party leaders, though the race has seen volatile swings over the past week. https://crowdtells.com/s/kalshi-KXWTI-26NOV03 https://crowdtells.com/s/kalshi-KXWTI-26NOV03 Commodities Sat, 01 Aug 2026 10:07:07 GMT US oil prices have been volatile as the Iran war continues, with the November 3 settlement price a key concern for the midterms. The market's current favorite is that prices will be above $72.99 on election day, even though the reporting emphasizes the uncertainty of the situation. Traders put the crowd's probability at 53%, even though the reporting highlights the potential for political pressure to change results or officials. The current move in odds over the past 24 hours is a modest -14 pts. https://crowdtells.com/s/624218 https://crowdtells.com/s/624218 Geopolitics Sat, 01 Aug 2026 10:07:07 GMT of progress, while Fox News reported he cautioned the five-month conflict could drag on toward November's midterms. Whether senior representatives convene formally by the September 30 cutoff now hinges on whether the pause holds and whether Iran accepts the proposed format. Traders put the odds of a round by that date at 66%, a level that has climbed steadily as the diplomatic track has gained visible momentum — though the reporting stresses that Trump's pause is reversible and Iran's calculus, as BBC noted, may be to keep pressure on without fully committing. https://crowdtells.com/s/45915 https://crowdtells.com/s/45915 Politics Thu, 23 Jul 2026 11:18:01 GMT Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has extended his lead over challenger Flavio Bolsonaro in the run-up to the country's presidential election, scheduled for October 4, 2026, according to recent polls. The election is expected to be a closely contested affair, with the outcome potentially having significant implications for Brazil's future. Traders put Lula at 66%, even though the reporting suggests that Bolsonaro has been gaining ground in recent weeks. https://crowdtells.com/s/kalshi-KXOSCARPIC-27 https://crowdtells.com/s/kalshi-KXOSCARPIC-27 Entertainment Sun, 02 Aug 2026 10:04:58 GMT Christopher Nolan's highly anticipated film 'The Odyssey' is gaining momentum as a top contender for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, with many considering it a strong candidate to take home the coveted prize. According to the latest odds, 'The Odyssey' has a roughly even chance of winning, with a 50% probability of success. While some outlets have expressed reservations about the film's chances, others have praised its complex narrative and visually stunning cinematography. Despite the mixed opinions, the film's prospects are looking increasingly promising as awards season heats up. https://crowdtells.com/s/703573 https://crowdtells.com/s/703573 Markets Sat, 01 Aug 2026 10:07:07 GMT The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release its July Consumer Price Index report on August 12, offering the latest read on whether annual U.S. inflation is continuing its slow grind toward the Federal Reserve's 2% target or settling into a stubbornly elevated range. Headline inflation has remained sticky through mid-2026: CNBC reported June core CPI at 3.3%, while PBS and U.S. News characterized the broader picture as inflation staying stubbornly high even as GDP growth slowed to a 1.5% annual rate in the second quarter. The specific proposition in focus is whether the 12-month change in CPI, before seasonal adjustment, lands at exactly 3.4%. Traders put that outcome at 45%, a level that has drifted higher over the past week even though recent reporting points to inflation cooling only incrementally, not accelerating to that degree. https://crowdtells.com/s/kalshi-KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AUG31 https://crowdtells.com/s/kalshi-KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AUG31 Crypto Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:36:24 GMT Bitcoin enters August 2026 under mounting pressure, with mining difficulty falling as weak economics force capacity reductions and forward markets signaling little relief through year-end. The loss of $90 million of Bitcoin from cold storage has further weighed on sentiment, while the Clarity Act stalls in the Senate with just five days left to hold a vote. Against that backdrop, the proposition of BTC ever trading above $67,500.00 before 11:59 PM ET on August 31 remains a narrow front-runner at 46%, though those odds have slipped over the tracking period — a drift that squares with the downbeat coverage from CoinDesk and 10x Research, the latter warning that rising Treasury yields could force the Fed to raise rates in September. Yahoo Finance notes whales betting against a four-year losing streak, but the broader reporting paints a fragile picture. https://crowdtells.com/s/628311 https://crowdtells.com/s/628311 Geopolitics Mon, 20 Jul 2026 22:59:33 GMT The United States has expanded its military strikes on Iran over the past two weeks, with CENTCOM confirming new operations and Tehran declaring the Strait of Hormuz a "red line" as it strikes back at American forces. The New York Times reported 14 hours ago that the Pentagon withheld dozens of U.S. military injuries sustained in the exchange, suggesting the human cost of the confrontation is greater than officials have publicly acknowledged. A diplomatic agreement reached on June 14 established a 60-day negotiation period toward a "final deal," extendable by mutual consent — but with active combat replacing talks, traders put the odds against an extension at 60%, a stance that has shifted +1 pts in the last day even as the escalation documented by PBS and CNBC makes a diplomatic renewal difficult to envision. https://crowdtells.com/s/32228 https://crowdtells.com/s/32228 Politics Wed, 22 Jul 2026 23:09:20 GMT Democrats are mounting an increasingly credible push to retake both chambers of Congress in the November 2026 midterms, with multiple outlets now reporting that polling margins across competitive House and Senate races have narrowed to razor-thin levels. The specific outcome in question — a 'Democrats Sweep' in which the party wins control of both the House and the Senate — would represent a rare midterm rebuke of a sitting president's party. Experts cited in recent coverage say one party is likely to emerge with full control of Congress, though which party remains unsettled. Traders put the probability of a Democratic sweep at roughly 46%, a coin-flip reading that has barely shifted over the past week, even as the underlying polling picture continues to tighten with roughly 103 days until election day. The Guardian separately reports that critics are warning former President Trump's recent rhetoric is laying groundwork to contest midterm results, adding a volatile dimension to an already close contest. https://crowdtells.com/s/31875 https://crowdtells.com/s/31875 Politics Fri, 24 Jul 2026 00:05:35 GMT A Senate Democrat has requested an investigation into whether Robert F. Kennedy Jr. violated the Hatch Act, according to The Hill, adding a new legal dimension to questions about his current government role and future political ambitions. The request centers on whether Kennedy, who has been discussed as a possible 2028 Republican presidential nominee, improperly mixed official duties with political activity. The probe request lands as the Democratic Party is simultaneously fracturing over its own 2028 primary calendar, with Black and Latino leaders publicly clashing over whether South Carolina or Nevada should vote first. Kennedy's odds of securing the GOP nomination sit at 49%, essentially flat over the past day at 0 pts, though the Hatch Act inquiry could test whether his standing holds if it gains traction. https://crowdtells.com/s/kalshi-KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26SEP01 https://crowdtells.com/s/kalshi-KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26SEP01 Culture Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:36:24 GMT President Donald Trump has maintained a heavy public-speaking schedule in recent weeks, defending his tariff policies at a General Motors visit in Michigan, preparing for a rescheduled White House Correspondents' Dinner speech, and pushing forward on Medicaid work requirements. None of the recent coverage records him saying the phrase "Who are you with" or "Where are you from" — the exact locution a prediction contract is tracking through September 1, 2026 at 12:00 a.m. ET. The contract treats any plural or possessive form of either phrase as a match. Traders put the probability at 99%, a level that has edged higher over the past day by +2 pts, though the volume behind it remains thin. https://crowdtells.com/s/112102 https://crowdtells.com/s/112102 Politics Fri, 31 Jul 2026 10:47:48 GMT Donavan McKinney is challenging incumbent Rep. Shri Thanedar for the Democratic nomination in Michigan's 13th Congressional District, with the primary set for August 4, 2026. McKinney, a progressive backed by multiple members of Congress, has drawn national attention as part of a broader wave of primary challenges against sitting House Democrats. The Detroit Free Press notes that 2026 has already seen ousters of Democratic incumbents and asks whether Thanedar could be next. CBS News interviewed McKinney about his campaign just two weeks out from the vote. Traders put McKinney's probability at 87%, aligning with the momentum the coverage describes, with those odds shifting over the past week. The contest is one of several contentious Michigan primaries this cycle, though Roll Call highlights the state's Senate race as the dominant contest. https://crowdtells.com/s/kalshi-KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29 https://crowdtells.com/s/kalshi-KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29 Health Tue, 21 Jul 2026 18:09:18 GMT U.S. measles cases are on track to surpass last year's record high, and it is only July, according to Yahoo News Canada. The surge comes as the Trump administration weighs immigrants' use of Medicaid and CHIP in permanent-residency decisions — a policy Axios reports could discourage enrollment in health programs that underpin childhood vaccination. A separate publicnotice.co report criticizes what it calls the administration's latest public-health initiative. The specific question in focus is whether annual measles cases will average at least 3,500 from 2025 through 2028. Traders put the probability of that outcome at 50%, roughly a coin flip, even though the reporting suggests cases are already climbing sharply. https://crowdtells.com/s/149589 https://crowdtells.com/s/149589 Politics Mon, 27 Jul 2026 11:34:34 GMT The Russian parliamentary election is set to take place in September 2026, with United Russia, the current ruling party, expected to maintain its dominance. The party has been in power since 2000 and has faced criticism for its handling of the economy and human rights. The election is seen as a test of President Vladimir Putin's grip on power, as he seeks to maintain his influence over the country. According to the market, United Russia is the clear favorite to gain the most seats, with 64% indicating a high level of confidence in the party's victory. However, recent headlines have highlighted the party's challenges, including a drone strike that has raised concerns about the party's security. Despite this, the market's confidence in United Russia's victory remains steady, with a 0 pts over the past 24 hours indicating a lack of significant change in the party's favor. https://crowdtells.com/s/758897 https://crowdtells.com/s/758897 Entertainment Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:36:24 GMT Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" enters its third weekend in domestic release with the critical conversation still unresolved and a formidable new competitor reshaping the global box office landscape. Sony's "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" opened to roughly $68.1 million in China and took the top spot in South Korea over the same July 31–August 2 frame, according to Variety, giving exhibitors a fresh blockbuster to prioritize. The question for "The Odyssey" is whether its domestic third weekend lands in the $47-52m band — a hold that would signal durable audience interest despite the divided reviews that have dominated cultural coverage since release. Outlets from the New York Times to Slate have spent the past week debating whether Nolan's Homeric adaptation is a triumph or a misfire, and that ongoing argument may matter more now that screens have a new superhero magnet competing for IMAX and premium-format auditoriums. Traders put the $47-52m band at 99%, a reading that aligns with the steady-but-unspectacular hold pattern the coverage implies, though the volume remains light. https://crowdtells.com/s/kalshi-KXBTCMINMON-BTC-26AUG31 https://crowdtells.com/s/kalshi-KXBTCMINMON-BTC-26AUG31 Crypto Mon, 03 Aug 2026 11:36:24 GMT Bitcoin enters August with sentiment under pressure from multiple fronts: a reported $90 million loss from cold storage described as "sickening" by CoinTelegraph, stalling crypto legislation in the U.S. Senate, and rising Treasury yields that some analysts warn could push the Federal Reserve toward a September rate hike. Outlets including Yahoo Finance Canada and CryptoRank are openly weighing whether Bitcoin could crash below $60,000 this month, a level the token has not traded beneath in over a year. 10x Research suggests Bitcoin may confirm an August bear-market bottom, though the macro backdrop is far from supportive. Traders put the probability of a drop below $60,000 at 54%, a level that aligns with but runs slightly ahead of the more cautious analyst commentary. https://crowdtells.com/s/237598 https://crowdtells.com/s/237598 Geopolitics Wed, 22 Jul 2026 08:41:36 GMT Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a belligerent statement accusing President Trump of violating the U.S.-Iran agreement and pledging a strong response by Iran and its proxies if the fighting continues to escalate. This move comes as tensions between the two countries remain high, with the fate of the Strait of Hormuz hanging in the balance. According to recent reporting, Khamenei's absence has become a liability for the Islamic Republic, with some speculating that his increased access to the public may be a sign of a shift in his leadership style. Despite this, traders put Mojtaba Khamenei at 84%, with a modest move in the past 7 days (+4.5 pts) and a slight increase in the past 24 hours (+3.7 pts).